the oil spill from space

The latest images of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill as seen from space are collected here by NASA.

vuvuzela filter

Yeah, they're ruining the world cup. But you can eliminate the frequency and resonant frequencies of the vuvuzela with some software. This link is an English translation of the original German page that shows how to do it with a Mac.

an interesting perspective

The following was posted by Jim Davidson to the CommercialSpacePlace YahooGroup. It reads like a letter, but it is posted for all to see there, so it is a public letter and there should be no legal issues with republishing it here. What he had to say has a direct bearing on the current end-to-Constellation debate.

Dear Mark,

Well, Jackie DeWayne Reynolds asks "What's wrong with this idea?" so it occurs to me to answer.

> Unfortunately for advocates of commercial space
> development, however, the market for access to space is
> being met at the current price of launch.

This comment supposes that there is no unmet demand that is not permitted to have access to space. There are plenty of examples of companies that have been shut down (Walt Anderson's MirCorp, Gary Hudson's Rotary Rocket, my own Space Travel Services, to name just three of dozens that come to mind) which suggest a substantial unmet demand. Certainly Reynolds has not examined the requests for export licences and other government permits that have been refused to all and sundry who request them. So I regard this claim that the market is being met to be amusing in the extreme, to the extent that it is not horrifyingly sad.

In December 1990 and January 1991, Space Travel Services demonstrated an unmet demand of over 650,000 people who would be eager to have a *chance* to travel in space for $2.99. Since Reynolds hasn't found any way to meet that demand, at any price, we'll have to dismiss the claim of the market being met.

Between 2004 and 2007, Virgin Galactic found tens of thousands of persons interested in flying in space on suborbital rides with at least dozens of these making down payment deposits on such rides. Again, this demand has not been met. Reynolds is not only wrong, but seems out of touch with current events.

> In a mixed/free
> market economy like ours, price is determined by the market
> (oligopolies and monopolies excepted, of course).

No, it isn't. The United States is not a free market economy and has not been since at least the formation of the Interstate Commerce Commission in 1887. You cannot be "just a little bit pregnant" and you cannot have "just a bit of a command economy." Really, this claim that there is any relationship between the USA economy and a free market economy is the dictionary definition of fatuous: "Foolish or silly, especially in a smug or self-satisfied way" http://thefreedictionary.com/fatuous

One can be satisfied of anything if you refuse to examine even the most basic of premises.

> Without
> greater demand for access to space, there is no impetus for
> the market to lower launch costs.

Well, gosh, we may never know. I can certainly remember when there was enough demand for re-supplying the space station with cargo flights to stimulate Andrew Beal to put up $300 million of his own money to develop cheap access to space and multiple launch sites for his big dumb boosters. And I can also remember when NASA chose to betray its previous commitments and screw Beal to the wall with a moly bolt. The fact that there was an impetus for the market to lower launch costs and that NASA then decided, in its evil and bureau-rat fashion, to force fit the "contracts" to existing aerospace giant companies only for the benefit of those companies and for the degradation of the market for cheap access to space certainly speaks volumes about how we got into this mess.

> But what if launch costs could be lowered indirectly?

What if launch costs aren't the door that you have to get through? What if space is not difficult, dangerous, expensive, and risky? What if everything you've been told about space by NASA has been a lie? What if the government lies through stolen teeth, and lies easily?

You want to open the space frontier to human exploration and settlement. The problems you face are not economic problems - there is a huge market for space tourism, there are huge markets for materials processing in space, there are huge markets for additional communications technologies, there are huge markets for energy. It is raining soup out there, all you need is the ability to get there with a bucket.

The problems you face are not technological problems. Two men landed on the surface of the Moon in 1969. Their electronics were amazingly ancient. Their communications systems were utterly bereft of TDRSS. They had no global positioning satellites. Not much more computing power than my pocket calculator. Really, please, don't talk to me about technological impediments to space achievement until you read every single one of Robert Goddard's patent applications. Especially the ones von Braun filched.

The problems are legal, bureaucratic, and political. All of the problems you face are in these areas. Now, admittedly, none of them are so complex that they couldn't be resolved fully with the use of twenty tonnes of iron returning from a 90 minute orbit and striking Washington, DC. But if you aren't that much of an extremist, then your focus has to be on finding, or founding, a free country, or more than one.

Best wishes.

Regards,

Jim

congratulations SpaceX !

Today SpaceX launched the Falcon 9 into orbit on its first test flight. The rocket is capable of carrying up to seven people to orbit in the Dragon capsule. SpaceX is a private company that didn't even exist eight years ago and in a couple years they will be delivering people to the international space station - and the Bigelow stations due to be launched in the next few years. It's a pretty good day.

note to self

must post more often, and shorter

technological stepping stones to space

In developing space I listed some short term stepping stone technologies I thought NASA should pursue. Nearly four years ago Jon Goff wrote Technologies Necessary for a Spacefaring Society, where he listed several similar stepping stones, and generated a discussion which produced a few more. Putting it all together produced a more complete list of the short-term stepping stone technologies NASA and the space industry can develop to enable a sustainable (i.e. profitable) expansion of humanity into space.

Pictured at right is one of the great inventions of the twentieth century, the Lego block. The basic blocks, patented in 1958 and still compatible with pieces made today, allowed kids to build and rebuild their own toys - and the building and redesign itself was the play activity. Over the years Lego added new pieces - different dimensions, gears, axles, wheels, figurines, and so on - all compatible with earlier designs, and each new design enabling another infinity of possibilities for play. The results can be astonishing.

These stepping stone technologies are very similar to the iterations of Lego block designs. Each stepping stone allows a broad range of new capabilities, and builds on the prior capabilities developed. And just as a single Lego piece by itself is not particularly impressive, the development of these stepping stone technologies by themselves are not nearly as lofty a goal as "Apollo on steroids". Instead the primary goal of these technologies is to provide logistical (and hence economic) leverage and jumpstart the space industry, enabling sustainable human expansion through cislunar space and then the rest of the solar system: more Bang for the Buck Rogers.

I have tried to categorize the stepping stone technologies below. For some of these stepping stones it makes sense to wait until other stepping stones are in place before beginning major work and bending metal. Others can be started right away or are already being worked on by NASA and/or the space industry. This list is not exhaustive, but I figure it's a good starting point for discussion if nothing else. There are non-technological stepping stones, too, but that's a topic for another blog post.

from Earth to Low Earth Orbit and back

• reusable liquid-fueled unmanned glide-back auxiliary boosters - These would replace the current strap-on solid rocket motors which provide an extra boost to rockets while in the atmosphere. Having these strap-ons helps deliver a bigger payload to orbit than possible with the core rocket by itself. Making them liquid-fueled means quicker turnaround time. UAV technology has come a long way over the last ten years as a result of warfare, but it can also be used to pilot these glide-back boosters. Having them glide back instead of splashing down eases recovery. Reusing them allows categorization of patterns of wear and highlights faults for further iterations, as well as spreading production costs over multiple launches.
• recoverable / reusable rocket first stage - SpaceX is already hard at work on this and plans on doing it with the Falcon 9. Splashdown recovery is more difficult than a glide-back strapon stage, but no more difficult than recovering a shuttle SRB. Reuse of this stage should reduce the cost of access to orbit as long as refurbishment costs are low and turnaround time is reduced.
• low maintenance thermal protection system - This is a key to the economical re-use of reentry hardware. It was also a big part of the cost of operating the shuttles. If the thermal protection system could be robust enough to withstand dozens of reentries before replacement, or was cheap and easy to replace each time, the turnaround time and manpower required would be greatly reduced.
• intermodal transport interface - load a shipping container inside the frame (which also houses solar panels, radiators, GN&C), spin and vibration test it, add a faring, put it on the next available rocket, and go. This enables orbital access to the existing worldwide supply chain. Once a design is up to TRL-11, shipping cargo to space will require much less handling, have higher efficiency, quicker throughput rate, and lower cost. (The intermodal transport container is itself a stepping stone technology, conveniently already in widespread use.)

vehicles

• tractor (tug) - This would be the cargo workhorse of cislunar space. It would have everything a regular satellite has (propulsion, guidance, navigation, control, power, temperature regulation, communications, propellant tanks, perhaps a robot arm) - the only thing it would lack is a payload. Instead it would couple itself to other orbital assets and perform tasks like proximity operations, transporting propellant to geosynchronous satellites, acting in lieu of an astronaut in teleoperated procedures, and many other tasks. Its function is similar to that of a farm tractor, semi-truck, or tugboat.
• bus - These vehicles would never land, only change orbits and dock. They wouldn't need to deal with the stresses of ascent or reentry, wouldn't need landing gear, wouldn't need aerodynamics. It could be as simple as an inflatable habitable volume (like the Bigelow modules), propellant tanks, and a tractor (snapped together like Lego pieces, perhaps?)
• lunar lander - This would only travel from lunar orbit (perhaps at L1?) to the lunar surface and back. There might be different types of landers for different sized jobs. These would be refueled at a propellant depot in Lunar orbit
• pod - "Open the pod bay doors, HAL." A pod is a one-man spaceship with a spherical pressure vessel and several remote manipulator arms. Such a craft would allow an astronaut to wear a minimalist space suit for emergencies or very temporary sorties, but spend most of their EVA activity in relative comfort and better protected than in current spacesuits, and eliminate the need for prebreathing. EVA times could be measured in days instead of hours.
• better spacesuits - NASA is already working on this with the astronaut glove prizes, but there is a huge design space to explore. Spacesuit improvement should be a never-ending project, with new milestones set as previous ones are met. And since space is a fairly big place, different environmental conditions (surface gravity, atmosphere) occur which preclude a single design.

orbital assets

• consumables depots - This includes propellant depots (storing liquid Oxygen, liquid Hydrogen, RP-1, Hydrazine, N2O4, Xenon... market demand will sort out the specifics) and depots of other fungible fluid consumables (water, Nitrogen, vodka, whatever the market demands). At first only a few propellants would be stored, but as the industry builds the demand for the other consumables will increase. The existence of the first depots will themselves drive up the rate of rocket launches (of tankers of various capacities filling the depots) and reduce the cost per payload kilogram for destinations beyond LEO. Eventually depots would be established in Geosynchronous Earth orbit and the Lagrange orbits (probably starting with L1).
• 4-, 6-, 8-, 12- or 20-sided universal docking nodes - (the numbers chosen are the number of faces on the Platonic solids) A universal node - able to connect habitable volumes in a geometric pattern with a common interface - is sorely needed if we are to build large habitable structures in space. The current six-sided nodes on the ISS might be considered this stepping stone if the design gets published. ITAR stands in the way of the most basic Lego block.
• bus stations / hotels - Habitable volumes with multiple available docking ports, these are likely to be closely associated with propellant depots. Bus stations would be used for transferring people from one mode of transportation to another. Hotels would themselves be orbital destinations. These could be several Bigelow modules connected by universal docking nodes.
• maintenance facilities - Entropy increases. Stuff breaks down. If you can't fix it, you have to replace it or do without. A maintenance facility would have a storehouse of spare parts and the necessary tools and equipment to repair at least the critical items.
• hangars - If you're fixing stuff in orbit, eventually you'll need to work on something in a shirtsleeve environment which is too big to fit through an airlock. You wouldn't bring a bus back to Earth to repair and relaunch, you'd just fix it in the hangar. A large substantially-leakproof hangar bay door poses some significant technical challenges. This is one stepping stone that will require other stepping stones in place.
• drydock - At some point we will want to assemble very large craft from smaller components. Some kind of large frame with several robot arms on rails would make this a whole lot easier.

life support

• substantially-enclosed life support system - The more enclosed the system is, the less resupply is needed. Being able to recycle CO2 and water and food with an artificial ecosystem eliminates a logistical nightmare and enables very long duration missions far out in the solar system.
• artificial (centrifugal) "gravity" - So far, we know a lot about living in 1 gee (Earth's surface gravity), and have learned about some debilitating effects of long-term exposure to zero gee, and how to mitigate some of those effects. We know absolutely nothing about the effects of long-term exposure to 1/6 gee (the Moon) or 0.38 gee (Mars). We don't know if a baby can develop normally in anything less (or more) than one gee. Many of the side effects of weightlessness would be eliminated if orbital habitations are rotated to produce an artificial centrifugal "gravity". Perhaps this could be accomplished by having the habitation attached to a counterweight by a long tether, and the whole thing rotated. Again, we don't know much about the long-term effects of high angular velocity, so there's lots to be learned here.
• improved radiation shielding - Outside the protection of Earth's magnetic field, the danger from solar events and cosmic rays increases enormously. We need to develop better radiation protection for long-duration missions.
• advanced robotics / teleoperation - Robotics will always be an integral part of space operations. This work is already going on, and like spacesuit improvement will likely remain an indefinitely-continuing project.

orbital operations

• orbital assembly - The ISS taught many lessons about orbital assembly - NASA is far more experienced at this than they are at rocket design. The assembly stepping stone will evolve along with the drydock stepping stone. Personally, I'd like to see modules click together like Legos (not exactly like Legos, but interfacing easily, mix and match as needed).
• orbital maintenance - Whether it involves bringing a crippled satellite in for repairs or fixing it remotely, or just doing minor repairs on a spacesuit, this is a critical cost-saving task.
• orbital fabrication and construction - Eventually we will be shipping raw materials to Earth orbit (from the surface of the moon, or from Near-Earth Asteroids) and then making them into something useful "on-site", such as constructing extremely large (kilometer-scale) rotating habitats. The earlier we figure out how to do things like make I-beams in freefall, the better.
• in-situ resource utilization - producing things like Oxygen and propellant and water from materials found on the Moon, Mars, or asteroids are absolutely critical to reducing the cost of all operations in space and reducing the dependence on a supply line from Earth.

delta vee

• momentum exchange tethers - These have the potential to provide a propellant-less change in trajectory for orbiting bodies and are definitely worth further examination
• electrodynamic reboost - Again with the tethers. This time, interaction between the Earth's magnetic field and an electric current induced on a long tether can raise the orbit of the tether (and whatever it is attached to). Instead of using propellant to fight orbital decay, electrodynamic reboost steals an iota of the energy of Earth's magnetic field (and solar energy to produce the electric current) to magnetically repel the orbiting tether.
• aerobraking - On a high-velocity return to Earth, aerobraking - temporarily dipping into the atmosphere to bleed off speed - is a propellant-minimizing way of slowing down. It's just like skipping a stone on a pond, with each successive skip at a slower speed. If you can go from a parabolic orbit to a low-eccentricity orbit without using propellant, you're ahead of the game.
• nuclear thermal propulsion - If we are to travel throughout the solar system, chemical rockets aren't going to cut it. Propellant accelerated by the heat from a nuclear reactor can achieve much higher exhaust velocities than by combustion, leading to higher ISP (gas mileage).

guidance, navigation, and control

• cislunar positioning system - GPS is fine if you're close to the Earth, but far enough out and you'd need some fancy astrogation and starfinders. Satellites at the Lagrange orbits could function as the cislunar equivalent of GPS, easing navigation throughout cislunar space.
• lunar positioning system - as we return to the moon we will need a constellation of positioning/communication-relay satellites orbiting the moon for exactly the same reasons we have them orbiting the Earth.
• x-ray pulsar positioning system (XPPS) - X-ray pulsars are natural broadcast signals all over the sky and far from the solar system. We may be able to use those properties to determine the position and velocity of an object anywhere in the solar system with fair precision. This would greatly simplify solar system navigation - and it is mostly a software problem.
• cislunar traffic control - There are already thousands of satellites and many times that number of debris objects orbiting the earth. As the traffic in low earth orbit and cislunar space increases, some traffic control system will have to grow up alongside the increasing traffic - other wise, as time goes on, collisions will become a greater and greater hazard.

power

• microwave power beaming - Being able to move energy from one place - say a large solar array - to another (like the Earth's surface or another satellite) absolutely requires power beaming. It is a key to opening up a space-based energy industry that could rival oil or coal or nuclear power on Earth.
• low-maintenance nuclear power plants - If all goes well, eventually we will be moving far out into the solar system, where the sunlight is dim, or perhaps to the equator of the moon with its two-week nights. In these cases, solar power may not be practical. Nuclear power plants that can operate with minimal maintenance open up those areas where the sun don't shine.

administering space

In developing space I suggested that NASA's new mission was administering space. NASA stands for National Aeronautics and Space Administration, after all. I then went on to list a bunch of "stepping stone" technologies that NASA could be pursuing over the next few years, but I didn't really explain what I meant by administering space.

First, let's compare NASA with another Administration, the FAA. Their mandate is actually much more complicated to convey than NASA's if you try to wade through the relevant legislation. Here's what the FAA have to say about themselves:

We're responsible for the safety of civil aviation. The Federal Aviation Act of 1958 created the agency under the name Federal Aviation Agency. We adopted our present name in 1967 when we became a part of the Department of Transportation. Our major roles include:

• Regulating civil aviation to promote safety
• Encouraging and developing civil aeronautics, including new aviation technology
• Developing and operating a system of air traffic control and navigation for both civil and military aircraft
• Researching and developing the National Airspace System and civil aeronautics
• Developing and carrying out programs to control aircraft noise and other environmental effects of civil aviation
• Regulating U.S. commercial space transportation

That's fairly straightforward. (Well, that last bit might need a little explanation. It pretty much covers American passenger craft until they reach orbit.)

The legislation governing NASA, the Space Act (1958, amended), is much smaller and easier to read than that of the FAA. The Declaration of Policy and Purpose and section 203(a), Functions of the Administration are the most interesting part. Both those sections contain exactly the same phrase: seek and encourage, to the maximum extent possible, the fullest commercial use of space. Here's what NASA says they do:

NASA's mission is to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery and aeronautics research... NASA conducts its work in four principal organizations, called mission directorates:

• Aeronautics: pioneers and proves new flight technologies that improve our ability to explore and which have practical applications on Earth.
• Exploration Systems: creates capabilities for sustainable human and robotic exploration.
• Science: explores the Earth, solar system and universe beyond; charts the best route of discovery; and reaps the benefits of Earth and space exploration for society.
• Space Operations: provides critical enabling technologies for much of the rest of NASA through the space shuttle, the International Space Station and flight support.

Note the difference? The FAA has a very clear understanding of the administration part of their job. Setting regulations. Setting standards. A system of air traffic control and navigation. And every part of what the FAA says it does contains the word "civil" (i.e. civilian) or "commercial".

In fact, when you compare what the FAA says they do with what NASA says they do, it is apparent that the FAA serves civilians and commerce, but what NASA does is "improve our (NASA's?) ability to explore" or "provides critical enabling technologies for much of the rest of NASA" - in other words, NASA exists to enhance the capabilities of NASA. That's harsh, but do you see the word "commercial" or "civil" in NASA's mission directorates? Compared to the FAA, who is it that NASA is serving?

(The word "society" is there, true - but that word can mean anything one wants it to mean, including everyone in the world, and the description of the Science directorate is such a "motherhood issue" that I wouldn't change a word anyhow.)

NASA appears to have gotten stuck in part of the Space Act's section on Functions of the Administration, section 203(a)(1): plan, direct, and conduct aeronautical and space activities. That doesn't mean all of them, just do such activities. It doesn't mean building an entirely new set of rockets from scratch when comparable commercial alternatives are already available.

Section 203(a)(4) (seek and encourage, to the maximum extent possible, the fullest commercial use of space) and 203(a)(5) (encourage and provide for Federal Government use of commercially provided space services and hardware, consistent with the requirements of the Federal Government.) would pretty much prohibit such things as Ares-1 development altogether. Such a goal is too small for NASA. It would be like the FAA building their own planes instead of certifying planes built by the aircraft industry.

It should be noted that NASA does a bang-up job with section 203(a)(2) arrange for participation by the scientific community in planning scientific measurements and observations to be made through use of aeronautical and space vehicles, and conduct or arrange for the conduct of such measurements and observations. They are getting better with (3) provide for the widest practicable and appropriate dissemination of information concerning its activities and the results thereof, but they can only do so much with ITAR in place.

The Aldridge commission recommended consolidating the various mission-focused enterprises within NASA's organizational structure into Science, Exploration, Aeronautics, and possibly Education. Notice something missing? Yep, the Space Operations mission directorate would be out, perhaps replaced by an Education directorate. I have something a different in mind. It might still be called Space Operations, but its function would in no way resemble the current directorate's stated purpose. More about that later.

The Aldridge commission also recommended a permanent space exploration steering council, a technical advisory board, a cost estimating organization, and special project teams on enabling technologies. I splashed some bits about the enabling technologies in developing space, because it gives some idea of the short-term goals NASA should be following, but this is just part of a larger realignment of NASA's mission (as currently envisaged by NASA) with its charter.

The FAA encourages the commercial use of airspace by providing structure: certifications for aircraft, air traffic control and navigation, pilot certification, maintenance records criteria, and so forth. Passenger and cargo planes would not be able to travel safely without this structure.

NASA can also encourage the commercial use of space, and not just by being a customer for rides to Low Earth Orbit. This is partly where these short-term enabling technologies projects come into play.

building the stepping stones

Commercial enterprises will do considerable research and development - just look at the contribution of Bell Labs to science - but there has to be some reasonable assessment of risk in order to please stockholders. If a development is too financially risky, such as developing cryogenic propellant storage and transfer in orbit, no company will be able to justify the investment to stockholders or investors no matter what the potential payoff. Nobody wants to be first, nobody wants to be third, everybody wants to be the second to get into something new.

That sort of technology is a game-changer. Storage and transfer of propellant in orbit is one small step out of many small steps - rather than giant leaps. It has a cascading effect: it helps bootstrap other stepping stones, it means a huge increase in commercial rocket production and launch rate, which in turn means new private sector jobs, and incremental improvements in vehicle design causing a rapid increase in vehicle safety, and on and on and on. That's what makes it a stepping stone.

Let's assume success. Suppose NASA takes my advice ("hey! this random blogger has an idea! let's change our whole agency!") and changes all its centers into FFRDCs like the Jet Propulsion Lab and then starts working on stepping stones like a demonstration orbital propellant depot. And suppose further that they get the sucker working after some minor tweaks - that it stores (for example) liquid Oxygen and liquid Hydrogen with minimal boil off and can transfer these propellants to or from another spacecraft. The propellant depot is now at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 9! Hooray!

Then what?

turning it up to 11

What should happen then is that NASA publishes the relevant data: the design of the coupling between the depot and the spacecraft, communications protocols for proximity operations, temperature control techniques, procedures for using boiloff as attitude control thrust, whatever. They would establish the regulations for such things as tolerances on the couplings, procedures for measurement of propellant transfer, temperature and pressure measurement guidelines for future depots, and so on. At times NASA would be working on this alongside such government organizations as the NIST and FCC and FAA, depending on the technology involved.

And then NASA would be the agency actually administering the use of that new technology: certifying the correctness (measured to within specified tolerances) of a coupling to the orbital version of a gas pump, for instance.

In short, NASA would be retiring much of the risk which would otherwise never be borne by commercial space companies, both the technical risk and the regulatory risk. If NASA demonstrates that an orbital propellant depot can work, sets the standards and regulations for operations, and then steps aside and administers those regulations, then private companies can step up and provide services. Companies that want to supply propellant to depots or launch depots or launch spacecraft to be refueled at depots would know exactly how to interface their craft with the depot, perhaps buying NASA-certified couplings from a choice of vendors, and would borrow some of the transfer and storage technology developed by NASA to actually do the job.

With all the stepping stone technologies I mentioned in developing space, NASA's role would be the same: identify a short-term enabling technology; get it working (i.e. retire the technical risk); publish specifications, standards, and regulations for the new technology (i.e. retire the regulatory risk); administer the certification processes and ensure regulatory compliance for using the new technology.

If NASA adopts a stepping-stones approach, then at any one time there would be several such enabling technologies being researched in parallel at varying levels of technical readiness. The Aldridge commission recommendations of a permanent space exploration steering council, a technical advisory board, and a cost estimating organization, would decide on which short term enabling technologies to pursue, and what strategy to use to develop the technology - not just up the existing Technology Readiness Level scale but beyond that into technical standards and specifications and regulations for commercial and civilian use.

Most of the enabling technologies I mentioned in developing space are at about a TRL of 2 to 4. What I am proposing is that NASA not stop at a TRL of 9 (Actual system 'flight proven' through successful mission operations) but that it extend its TRL rating system beyond 9 into TRL-10 (technical standards, specifications, and regulations regarding the new technology are developed, published, and implemented) and TRL-11 (the new technology is implemented by the industry and regulation, certification, industry standards and so forth are administered by NASA).

I mentioned the Space Operations directorate above and the Aldridge report idea of perhaps eliminating it or replacing it with an Education directorate. Instead, the Space Operations directorate would be the part of NASA responsible for those TRL-10 and TRL-11 stages, and would likely be heavily involved in data-gathering during the TRL-7-8-9 stages. (Several other functions would also fall under Space Operations such as satellite and orbital debris tracking, Near-Earth Asteroid tracking, and administration of the Deep Space Network.)

So how can NASA maximize the commercial use of space while developing these stepping-stone enabling technologies from low technology readiness level right up to TRL-11? And how does this promote the development of the space industry?

more Bang for the Buck (Rogers)

Let's extend the imaginary scenario above. Suppose NASA has demonstrated a working orbital propellant depot, published interface specifications and tolerances and regulations for proximity operations and protocols for delivering full tanks and so forth, and is now certifying components as compatible, regulation-compliant, and so on. What then?

With all those specifications and regulations and so forth available to civilians, businesses can begin building matching couplings, programming their software to comply with the proximity operations regulations, that sort of thing. They don't have to do it all from scratch. They already know it will work.

And they don't have to do it all. A single company doesn't have to do everything. Company A might just include orbital propellant depot couplings to their product line, since they have expertise in manufacturing precision machining of the alloy required. Company B might buy that coupling and include it on their (launched empty) second stage of their Whizbang rocket. And NASA itself might buy it for their own use in other stepping stone technologies like a bus - or might just buy a portion of a Whizbang rocket payload to launch a deep-space robotic exploration mission, refueled in orbit for the second leg of its journey.

NASA can also encourage commercial use of space as it develops these stepping stone technologies up the Technology Readiness Levels. In many cases, the entire problem doesn't need to be solved at once. A perfect example of this is the Centennial Challenges program. This program is a tiny, tiny fraction of NASA's budget, and at that spread over many years, but the results are remarkable.

If this same idea - prizes awarded for targeted innovations in key areas - is broadened in scope, with prize values scaled according to the value to the agency, NASA can apply leverage to that money that would be impossible if NASA simply spent it in-house working on the same problems, while at the same time engaging the public directly and expanding the base of the space industry.

These prizes are a good way to get a technology from TRL-2 (Technology concept and/or application formulated) to TRL-4 (Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory environment). Further "relevant environment" tests and improvements could either be undertaken at one of the NASA centers or opened up to the industry in the form of more prizes or commercial contracts. In all cases, the question should be, "can we use the industry to provide leverage?"

Prizes are also a good way for start-up space businesses to find a niche or several niches in what is to become a large industry. A small space business might start by just making the precision propellant couplings needed to refuel booster stages, or by just making astronaut gloves, or by making the software, actuators, and engines necessary for lunar landers. In fact, in the case of the lunar landers, there were three such companies involved and all now have a firm toehold in the industry.

NASA can also use commercial space launch providers - both suborbital and orbital - to bring some of these stepping stone technologies up through TRL-7 (System prototype demonstration in a space environment), TRL-8 (Actual system completed and 'flight qualified' through test and demonstration (ground or space)), and TRL-9 (Actual system 'flight proven' through successful mission operations), either by purchasing the entire available payload or just a portion of the payload. Such contracts would be paid for results, not cost-plus accounting which pays for costs incurred.

Once the technology has advanced to TRL-11, it is possible to get businesses in seemingly unrelated industries to become involved in the space industry. For example, a company like Nike or Reebok could start mass-producing spacesuits.

restating NASA's mission statement

NASA is the National Aeronautic and Space Administration, not the National Aeronautic and Space Industry. Everything an organization does stems from its mission statement. Extending space technology beyond flight testing and validation into industry standards and specifications and regulations allows the space industry to participate in implementing stepping stone technologies in operational systems. Incentives like prizes and contracts (and other things NASA can't do but Congress can, such as Zero Gee Zero Tax) will help leverage NASA's budget for developing the stepping stone technologies.

These stepping stones and commercial involvement also assist NASA's Science and Exploration efforts. For example, today if we want to send a rover to Mars we launch it on the (commercial!) Delta rocket. It carries its fully-fueled second stage all the way from the ground to orbit, then discards the first stage and uses the second to go to Mars.

However, if NASA develops (up to TRL-11) propellant depots and bus stations, then the second stage can be launched empty and a much larger, heavier payload can be put on top. The first stage gets discarded (and perhaps recovered and reused) and the second stage refuels in orbit, and is checked out by astronauts at the bus station. Perhaps the second stage takes it to the Earth-moon L1 propellant depot, where it is again refueled, some other previously launched components added, and then sent on its way to Mars. In the end, NASA gets a much bigger, more reliable payload for the dollar.

So, this brings me to NASA's mission statement, mentioned above. It needs to change to reflect the new civil and commercial (rather than NASA-centric) orientation. Here goes:

NASA's mission is to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery and aeronautics research... NASA conducts its work in four principal organizations, called mission directorates:

• Aeronautics: pioneers and proves new flight technologies that improve America's ability to explore and which have practical applications for civil aeronautics.
• Exploration Systems: works with industry to create capabilities for commercially-sustainable human and robotic exploration and utilization of the solar system.
• Science: explores the Earth, solar system and universe beyond; charts the best route of discovery; and reaps the benefits of Earth and space exploration for society.
• Space Operations: provides critical enabling technologies for civil space utilization, certifies and regulates those technologies for civil use, and provides flight support, deep space communications, and object tracking.

How's that?